GCC Team Project- Emission Scenarios- Interpretation and Resources

Session 4 – Scenario Interpretation and Resources:

• What key uncertainties (climate forcings and feedbacks) would exist for this scenario?
• What economic, social, environmental, and/or technological changes would have to take place in order for this scenario to be feasible over the next 100 years?
• What resources have you discovered that would assist you in teaching about this scenario in your classroom?

B1 emission scenario- for reference by Michelle Serger - Saturday, 19 November 2011, 08:48 AM

B1 The B1 scenario describes a world that emphasizes global solutions to economic, social, and environmental sustainability characterized by: Rapid economic growth as in A1, but with rapid changes towards a service and information economy. Population rising to 9 billion in 2050 and then declining (as in A1). Reductions in material intensity and the introduction of clean and resource-efficient technologies. An emphasis on global solutions to economic, social, and environmental stability. Show parent | Reply Sum of ratings: 15 / 100

Resources for teaching about scenario B1 by Michelle Serger - Saturday, 19 November 2011, 09:15 AM

The B1 scenario (and the analysis of all of the emission scenarios) tie in perfectly with the most recent labs I have conducted in my Environmental Science course.  We completed an analysis of Human Population Growth and a Personal Energy Use Audit.  Both of the labs are from an AP Environmental Science lab manual.  The students were comfortable with undertanding the trends in world population growth, but were challenged by the calculations needed to analyze the information.  I will continue to use this resource as a lead-in to my discussion of population growth, resource use, and global climate change. We then tied the population growth into resource use with our Personal Energy Use Audit.  Again, students were challenged by the calculations, but I believe this is a necessary step in learning how to analyze information and reinforcing the skills necessary for 21st centurly learning.  When going over the calculations and the conclusions I learned a lot about student misconceptions.  Students had many questions about energy sources and types.  How they work, who uses them, when they can be used, etc.  Most were familiar with coal as an energy source, but needed explanation of the other energy sources such as nuclear power, solar power, and wind power.  We discussed the technologies and the costs of each.  I will continue to complete this lab (earlier in the school year next time) as part of my introduction to issues in Environmental Science and to Global Climate Change. After these steps I plan on using the links provided in our most recent session to take our data analysis and discussions to the next level, where we begin using more complex information and resources to reinforce both STEM teaching and learning and our discussion of Global Climate Change. An additional component I am working on is transitioning the course from a traditional pen/paper course to a course that is taught using a 1:1 tablet pc program.  I will be embedding links to these resources in my personal web page and considering how students may use them next year. Show parent | Reply Sum of ratings: 50 / 100

Re: Resources for teaching about scenario B1 by eugene keen - Saturday, 19 November 2011, 03:15 PM

Michelle: those two labs (HPG and the Energy Audit) sound great (I would love to take a look at them– can you gift them to me?) Can they be used in our course project? I believe labs are an optimal learning experience- the more the better! Our scenario is predicated on clean, resource-efficient technology – do we want to focus on that aspect in our project? Think GREEN - Utilizing Renewable Solar Energy is a natural for a STEM tech activity… I would love to look into the Green Roof Design as an out-of-class project (in miniature) for my envi sci class. I liked the Wind Power activity as well. The PBS Learning Media lab that involves filling balloons with car exhaust is a blast to do (but it’s difficult)… I want to try that lab where you use large jars with thermometers in sunlight with various GHGs inside (water vapor, CO2, would it be dangerous to put a little CH4 in one?)

GCC Team Project- Emission Scenarios- B1- Scenario Analysis

B1: The best possible outcome! by eugene keen - Wednesday, 9 November 2011, 10:27 PM

The B1 scenario nut-shelled: -rapid economic growth; changing to service/information based economy; -population increase until 2050, then gradually decreasing; -reduction in material intensity with an introduction of clean, resource-efficient technology; -emphasis on global solutions to socio-econo-enviro stability. B1 is similar to A1 in its population trend; different than A2 & B2 in that their population does not begin to fall. Its economic development is unique in that it features a successful transition to a service and information based economy (none of the other scenarios do that); and it has a global worldview on the big picture. B1 is definitely the most hopeful, best-case scenario of the six, and one can observe some of the trends described in it, in the world today. For example, China and India’s populations are both predicted to be in decline by 2050, and the demographic transition shows that in stage 4, post-industrial nations have decreasing populations. The growth of knowledge-based economies, which began in the 1970’s, is continuing to spread globally, according to the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (refer to Trends and Implications, page 9). And one has only to look at the Green Rankings Global Top 100 to see that the top-traded global companies are deeply committed to resource efficient technology. The European Union has recently had some economic problems, but the fact remains – 27 sovereign nations are cooperating under a common flag to work for the common good. All this being said, it is undeniable that the worst is yet to come for the developing nations in Africa as far as population growth is concerned; estimates show several African states rising in population well into the 22d century. And China continues to balk at any international agreement regarding carbon reduction policies, making any protocols manufactured in Kyoto or Copenhagen useless without their cooperation – they insist upon “voluntary” compliance while claiming their right to continue to play catch up with the United States. Who can say which scenario will out? That’s why there are six of ‘em…pay your money, take your chances! Show parent | Reply

We will survive! by Cheryl Wagner - Saturday, 12 November 2011, 04:28 PM

Our scenario could be the best as we emphasize global solutions to all forms of sustainability. While the A1 scenario showd integrated world, our scenario emphasizes working together to find solutions to make the world more sustainable--not just integrating with each other but actually focusing on sustainability. Sorry A2 and B2, but if you keep living in your little individual shells, we are all doomed...... Now, if we can just make it happen...to all work together. Right now, China is the top emitter of greenhouse gases, but have expressed little interest at this time to work to reach agreements. The US and China leaders want each other to take the lead, but neither country will do that unless the other makes explicit committments that neither is willing to do. Governmental power struggles will be one of the biggest hurdles to world wide solutions. Time had a great article on these issues, see U.S. vs. China that could be used by teachers to help students begin a discussion about country vs. country conflicts. Show parent | Reply

Clean Coal: an oxymoron for the ages by eugene keen - Sunday, 13 November 2011, 01:22 PM

One of the tenets of our B1 scenario is the use of clean, resource-efficient technologies for energy production. I've visited some of the DoE sites and it seems that numerous technological advances have been made in the field of carbon capture and gasification (both of which can reduce the amount of atmospheric CO2 emissions). But apparently the energy companies are not willing to implement this new cleaner solution because plants cannot easily be retro-fitted, and building new plants is too financially risky at this point…all they’re spending money on, is a media campaign to reassure the public that everything will be OK as long as the EPA doesn’t rock the boat with “restrictive” laws that will cause job loss and increased energy costs! The phrase “clean, resource-efficient technologies” used in our scenario may also be translated as alternative energy sources such as wind, solar, wave, hydro, geothermal, tidal and yes - even nuclear. It is true that the world’s largest energy brokers are currently exploring some of these options, if only because they still want to be in the game when the fossil fuel finally runs out. So – I think that part of our scenario is likely, if only because of the education we are proving our young students about the environment. I would like to think that all the future business majors sitting in our science classes are getting a world-view that puts the environmental safety of the planet (most particularly the biosphere) above corporate greed. I have been greatly encouraged by the OWS protestors! Show parent | Reply

Is Clean Coal a possibility? by Cheryl Wagner - Sunday, 13 November 2011, 05:14 PM

Eugene, you are obviously way beyond me in understanding and grasping the whole idea of GCC and teaching it. I am hoping that in preparing this class assignment, I will learn enough to help my students (who are also beginners!!) understand what they can and should do as they grow and mature. Thanks for leading us to the DOE site http://www.fossil.energy.gov/programs/powersystems/index.html. I found the following interesting: "Existing CO2 capture technologies are not cost-effective when considered in the context of large power plants. Economic studies indicate that carbon capture will add over 30 percent to the cost of electricity for new integrated gasification combined cycle" Can we afford it?  As we look at our scenario which emphasizes global solutions, will reclamation of carbon dioxide be feasible economically?  Will alternative solutions for energy be bigger?  Our state, with the nation's highest unemployement rate right now, has politicians and community leaders all over the alternative energy ideas, to bring them to our state where we have excesses of solar, wind, and geothermal energy.  Not sure about nuclear here as lour leaders really helped kill the nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mtn, so too many people think nuclear is "too dangerous". Show parent | Reply

plan for a cleaner future by eugene keen - Monday, 14 November 2011, 09:00 AM

Cheryl, ...I've been teaching and researching GWCC for six years now, so I might have head start on you...but I still need to get better at preparing lessons that connect with my kids. Your point about not being able to afford clean coal technology now is a very good one. Nothing man builds, lasts forever (well, the pyramids at Giza & the Roman aqueducts  are still around!) and eventually new power plants will need to be constructed. I hope by then that the clean coal technology being developed today will be put to use! How difficult would it be to sell a nuclear power plant in the USA after what happened in Japan this past spring? Chancellor Merkel in Germany has halted nuclear energy in her country because of overwhelming public disapproval. Show parent | Reply

B1- The best, but most challenging outcome by Michelle Serger - Monday, 14 November 2011, 05:22 PM

B1- The best, but most challenging outcome Assembeled my ideas last night, read below.  Also discussed with a fellow teacher (in another section of this class!).  This scenario seems the most interesting as it gives us the opportunity to discuss real change. What is the basic premise of your team’s scenario? Global solutions Rapid economic growth towards service and information economy Population reaching 9 billion and then declining Introduction of clean and resource efficient technologies How does this scenario differ from the other five scenarios? One of the biggest differences in the B1 scenario versus the other scenarios is that the solutions and more global, where in the other scenarios the solutions are either by nation (or even more localized) as in A2 and B2 or converging as in A1. Another area of difference is in how technological changes are taking place.  In the other scenarios the changes are more fragmented and less rapid. Is there evidence existing today that would suggest to you that your scenario may occur within the next 100 years? One topic we have been discussing in class is the world population.  Since we have now hit 7 billion, we are obviously still growing.  It seems likely that in another just under 40 years we could make it to 9 billion. I am not sure how we could make the step to more global solutions as described in B1.  If the scientists are in agreement about global climate change and the need to develop new and different technologies to solve our problems, then based on my opinion of the public reaction, some steps need to be taken before we can embrace a global partnership. Is there evidence that would refute this scenario from taking place? I think people may be against (or not fully understand) global parnerships and the changes and new technologies that may enable us to use our resources within reason.  How can we make changes this large within such a short time especially without everyone on the same page? Show parent | Reply Sum of ratings: 50 / 100

human nature by eugene keen - Tuesday, 15 November 2011, 10:17 AM

Michelle queries, "How can we make changes this large within such a short time especially without everyone on the same page?" I agree - cooperation between and within governments seems to be at a low point lately; polarization and emotion are the order of the day at all levels both politically and economically...how will it ever come together? The IPCC report from 2004 doesn't address the prospect of WW III (although it does mention "conflict") in some of the scenarios. Perhaps the war will be driven by resource shortages (food, water, energy) rather than by idealogical differences as in the past. And maybe the war will end when humans realize that ants always had a better idea when it comes to how they treat the Earth and other ants so that everyone had enough food, space, and mutual consideration of other's needs to maintain a balance in whatever ecosystem they're in... I'm a big fan of the ants; they make up a huge portion of the biomass on our planet - yet they actually HELP any system they're a part of (and they're a part of lots of systems). We could learn a lot from them. Show parent | Reply

GCC Team Project- Emission Scenarios- Part I

Simulate the engineering design process as you develop and share a presentation about a climate change scenario with your fellow learners in this course.

Identify the Problem: Your team has been assigned one of the six emission scenarios reported in the IPCC’s Special Report on Emission Scenarios. You will discuss the scenarios in the "Course Project Part 1: Team Assignment" discussion forum (included in this blog).

Your story or presentation, which will reflect the discussions, will be developed in Session 5 and presented in Session 6.

Brainstorm: Discuss the following questions about your scenario in your team’s forum.

Session 3 - Scenario Analysis:

• What is the basic premise of your team’s scenario?
• How does this scenario differ from the other five scenarios?
• Is there evidence existing today that would suggest to you that your scenario may occur within the next 100 years?
• Is there evidence that would refute this scenario from taking place?

GCC Team Project- Emission Scenarios-Purpose

Scenarios and Their Purposes

IPCC's Special Report on Emission Scenarios explains that these "what-if" scenarios assist in climate change analysis, including climate modeling and the assessment of impacts, adaptation, and mitigation. The possibility that any single emissions path will occur as described in the scenarios is highly unlikely. From the book Radiative Forcing of Climate Change: Expanding the Concept and Addressing Uncertainties (2005) we are told:

"Developing emissions scenarios is tantamount to asking how different societies will produce, transform, and consume energy; extract and use Earth's resources; and modify the landscape for the next century. The possible answers to this vast and complex question are manifold. Uncertainties arise in all facets of the problem of building long-term scenarios. Moreover, unforeseen events, such as a revolutionary breakthrough in technology or a geopolitical shift, could occur and radically alter future emissions."

Global Climate Change and learning in the 21st century classroom

How are the causes and effects of global climate change are relevant topics to the teaching and learning that should be occurring in today's 21^st century classrooms?

One of the biggest pushes I see in 21st century teaching and learning is the need to include more opportunities for problem solving.  Students should be given information that they can process to solve a genuine problem.  Examining Global Climate Change and the causes and effects may be a challenging endevour, but worthwhile as it supports the use of the problems solving skills that our students need to develop.

forcings and feedbacks

Which climate forcings and feedbacks are most prevalent in either your local area or in the United States as a whole and why might this be so?
What resources have you located to help you and your students understand climate forcings and feedbacks?

In the area of the US where I live (Ohio) I feel one of the main forcings that is present is from aerosols, dust, smoke, and soot.  Much of our energy is generated by burning coal, which is evident at the power plants scattered along the Ohio River.  Cincinnati is located in a river valley which exasperates the problem.  Not only are the aerosols, dust, smoke and soot produced locally, but they seem to get trapped here to some extent.  During summer months we experience problems due to the SMOG and issue SMOG warnings as a result.  I am sure there are other factors contributing to this situation, but geography and industry seem to be largely connected.
Clouds, carbon cycle, and precipitation all seem to be logical feedbacks that occur in our area.  We are not located near an ocean so feel this eliminates both ocean circulation and sea level rise at least directly.  It would be silly to say that our local emissions have only a local effect though.  I believe the effects or natural resource usage and pollution extends far beyond our local areas.
I have accumulated and shared many great resources for my students with this course.  I continue to enjoy the short videos on each topic.  They are short, but concise.  I will refer my students to many of the links on this page, especially the tutorials that have an interactive element.

21st Century Learning

I am fascinated by all the options Web 2.0 offers for teaching. I wanted to check them all out right away. I was interested in the NoteStar link, went to the site, but need to set up an account. I would probably use this for times when I have students access on-line/virtual labs and other tools. I also liked the tool whilch could be used to teach editing of word documents. I remember learning highlighting skills as a student, but this tools takes it even further. It could be used to give my students a chance to interact with their digital text and support the idea of teaching information processing skills.